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Free agency officially started Monday, but the managers, not the players, stole the show, culminating in the Cubs’ stunning move to land Craig Counsell. To be honest, I still am shocked following yesterday’s series of management moves, which also included the hirings of the Mets (Carlos Mendoza) and Guardians (Stephen Vogt).
Another unpredictable MLB season is upon us and while the trades and signings haven’t really started yet, we’ve seen some notable transactions, including several teams exercising club options on potential free agents like Alex Cobb (Giants), José Leclerc (Rangers) and Kyle Hendricks (Cubs). We’ve seen teams cut ties with the faces of their franchise, as the White Sox declined their option on Tim Anderson and the Reds did the same with Joey Votto. We’ve seen players like Eduardo Rodriguez and Marcus Stroman opt out of contracts (with the Tigers and Cubs, respectively) and players like Josh Bell opt out of contracts (with the Marlins). We even saw a trade, when the Tigers acquired Mark Canha from the Brewers for a minor league reliever. The Marlins have hired Peter Bendix as president of baseball operations and the Red Sox selected Craig Breslow as their chief baseball officer. Do you have all that?
The big steps, which will keep us on the edge of our seats for weeks, are yet to come. So let’s try to guess how this could all turn out. Here are 24 predictions for the 2023-2024 offseason, which should be another fun and wild winter. Share your own predictions in the comments section.
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1. None of the seven players who received the $20.325 million one-year qualifying offer (Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Josh Hader, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray) will accept it, as they all aim to a longer-term deals in free agency.
2. Ohtani will surprise many by signing with the world champion Texas Rangers. The contract includes incentives, escalator clauses and compensation bonuses that will make him the highest-paid player in the history of the sport. The Dodgers and Mariners finish second in the Shohei sweepstakes.
3. Aaron Nola signed a five-year, $125 million deal with the Dodgers about 24 hours after learning they lost Ohtani.
4. The Phillies, after falling short in their efforts to bring back Nola, quickly turned around and signed lefty Jordan Montgomery to a five-year, $127 million contract.
Juan Soto will be a free agent after next season. Will the Padres trade him? (Brad Penner/USA Today)
5. The Yankees are making a blockbuster trade with the Padres to land three-time All-Star Juan Soto. And then …
6. … New York turns around and signs Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a seven-year, $211 million deal that ultimately pushes the Yankees payroll to its highest level ever under owner Hal Steinbrenner.
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7. The Giants are signing outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to the largest contract of any position player in this year’s free-agent class aside from Ohtani, Bellinger and Chapman.
8. The Cubs are bringing back Bellinger on a six-year, $144 million deal to play first base.
9. The Astros hire Joe Espada as their next manager, promoting him after six seasons as their bench coach.
10. Managers Lou Piniella and Jim Leyland will be elected to the Hall of Fame during voting at the Winter Meetings by the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee.
After a 101-win season, will the Orioles expand their young core? (Tommy Gilligan/USA Today)
11. The Orioles shock the baseball world, signing both Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson to franchise-record-breaking long-term deals. In response, O’s fans break the season ticket sales record during the Angelos family’s ownership period.
12. The Dodgers’ Julio Urías and the Rays’ Wander Franco will face long-term suspensions following reviews of their respective cases, leaving both ineligible for Major League baseball in 2024.
13. The Twins, coming off an AL Central-winning campaign, remain patient and don’t make any major moves this offseason.
14. The Angels are turning to one of their own, hiring Darin Erstad as their new manager to succeed Phil Nevin.
15. The Washington Nationals are ultimately sold and the new ownership group includes future Hall of Fame executive Theo Epstein, who will serve as the club’s CEO and president.
16. Bruce Bochy of the Rangers and Skip Schumaker of the Marlins are named managers of the year for their respective leagues. Bochy general manager Chris Young is named MLB Executive of the Year.
17. Joe Maddon and Buck Showalter will not be hired as managers this season. Both, along with Dusty Baker, never succeed in the majors again. Baker ends up serving as a consultant to a team while waiting for the call from Cooperstown.
The Cardinals missed Yadier Molina in 2023. Could he return to the dugout in 2024? (Jeff Curry/USA Today)
18. Yadier Molina joins the Cardinals coaching staff and becomes the most prominent manager-in-waiting in the sport.
19. The much-discussed move of the Oakland A to Las Vegas is approved by the MLB. The A’s will play the 2024 season at the Coliseum and the next three years in Vegas at their Triple-A field, which is being upgraded to serve as their home until a new major league stadium is built.
20. MLB begins more concrete discussions about expansion, but specifies that it won’t happen for another five to seven years. Nashville, Charlotte and Montreal will be early favorites to land new franchises. The league plans to have four divisions of four teams in each league.
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21. MLB adopts the Automated Ball-Strike System with a challenge format for the 2024 season.
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22. Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuña Jr. are named the MVPs of their respective leagues.
23. Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell have been named Cy Young Award winners.
24. Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll take home Rookie of the Year honors.
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(Top photo of Shohei Ohtani: John McCoy / Getty Images)
