It’s Week 11 in the NFL, and it’s time to start thinking about who among the current head coaches has a future that will extend into the 2024 season.
The Las Vegas Raiders have already made a coaching change, replacing Josh McDaniels with Antonio Pierce, at least on an interim basis. The Power Rankings are weighing in this week with a status check on Pierce and the other 31 head coaches to determine who’s “solid,” who’s “safe” and who’s “shaky.”
Remember, that it takes a lot for a coach to reach “solid” status in the NFL, and don’t be surprised by the very famous name low on the list who is on shaky ground.
(Last week: 2)
Sunday: Bye
Coach status: Safe
Since going 9-8 in 2021, Nick Sirianni is 22-4 as the Eagles’ coach. He took Philadelphia to the Super Bowl last season and is beloved in the city for his fiery personality on top of it. It’s hard to imagine a better marriage of city and coach than what the Eagles have at the moment, just like it’s hard to imagine Sirianni not being in Philadelphia for a long time.
Up next: at Kansas City Chiefs, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Nick Sirianni is FIRED up after tonight’s win against the Dolphins 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/4aqSuyHReA
— NBC Sports Philadelphia (@NBCSPhilly) October 23, 2023
(Last week: 3)
Sunday: Bye
Coach status: Solid
Andy Reid is 254-140 in 25 seasons as a head coach, which puts him fourth on the all-time wins list. He’s had eight straight double-digit wins seasons, and he is the only coach in NFL history to lead two franchises to 10 or more playoff wins. By his standards, this year’s Chiefs are struggling on offense (13th in scoring, 23.11 points per game), and not a single person is worried that Reid and company won’t figure it out.
Up next: vs. Philadelphia Eagles, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
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(Last week: 4)
Sunday: Beat Los Angeles Chargers 41-38
Coach status: Safe
All the kneecap-biting jokes were on us. Plenty of people wrote off Dan Campbell after his bombastic introductory news conference, but he’s 15-4 in his last 19 games. The Lions went for it on fourth down five times Sunday against the Chargers and converted four times, including an early fourth-and-5 with a run play and then on fourth-and-2 with 1:47 left in a tie game when in field goal range. Converting that last one allowed Detroit to run the clock down and kick the game-winner as time expired. “He’s got big …” (confidence, let’s say confidence), quarterback Jared Goff said after the game.
Up next: vs. Chicago Bears, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
(Last week: 6)
Sunday: Beat Jacksonville Jaguars 34-3
Coach status: Solid
There’s no doubt Kyle Shanahan is one of the best offensive designers and play callers in the NFL, maybe in the history of the NFL, but is he a great head coach? After Sunday, Shanahan is 58-49 in seven seasons in San Francisco. Eleven current head coaches with at least six years on the job have a better career winning percentage than Shanahan’s .539. But when it looks good, it looks good, and it looked good Sunday. The 49ers had 437 yards and are now third in the league in scoring (28 ppg).
Up next: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
(Last week: 10)
Sunday: Beat Baltimore Ravens 33-31
Coach status: Safe
What are we supposed to do with Kevin Stefanski? Sunday’s win over the Ravens, which put Cleveland in a tie with Pittsburgh for second place in the AFC North, may have moved him from shaky to safe. It was the Browns’ fourth win in the last five games in a season that has included season-ending injuries to running back Nick Chubb and offensive tackle Jack Conklin and whatever is going on with Deshaun Watson’s shoulder. Cleveland’s win total went down in each of Stefanski’s first three seasons, but he’s close to stopping that trend after Sunday’s win.
Up next: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
(Last week: 1)
Sunday: Lost to Cleveland Browns 33-31
Coach status: Solid
John Harbaugh is on his way to a sixth winning season in the last seven years, and he may very well be on the way to the Super Bowl even after losing to the Browns on Sunday. After making home run hires at defensive coordinator (Mike McDonald) and offensive coordinator (Todd Monken) in the last two seasons, Harbaugh is now 154-98 in his 16th season with the Ravens.
Up next: vs. Cincinnati Bengals, Thursday, 8:15 p.m.
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(Last week: 7)
Sunday: Bye
Coach status: Safe
What Mike McDaniel is doing in the NFL should not go unappreciated, and we’re not talking about running an offense that is averaging 7.1 yards per play, the most by any team in at least the last 20 years. We’re talking about having a personality. In a league in which too many coaches behave like they’re working on a cure for cancer, McDaniel has the self-assurance to have a sense of humor, and he’s 15-11 in two seasons in Miami.
Up next: vs. Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
😂 Mike McDaniel is the best pic.twitter.com/gnahbuwdyG
— Sky Sports NFL (@SkySportsNFL) November 4, 2023
(Last week: 5)
Sunday: Lost to Houston Texans 30-27
Coach status: Safe
Zac Taylor has the lowest wins-to-respect ratio in the NFL. Without question, much of the Bengals’ success in the last three seasons (27-15 with a Super Bowl run) should be credited to Joe Burrow, but the extent to which Taylor has been erased from the equation is pretty remarkable. The Bengals remained in last place in the AFC North thanks to Sunday’s loss, but Taylor remains safe in Cincinnati.
Up next: at Baltimore Ravens, Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
(Last week: 9)
Sunday: Beat Washington Commanders 29-26
Coach status: Solid
Pete Carroll, the world’s youngest 72-year-old, has taken Seattle to the postseason in 10 of his 13 seasons as head coach and right now they’d be the fifth seed in the NFC playoffs. He is 17th all-time with 167 wins. And what Carroll has done for Geno Smith’s confidence is part of his secret sauce. After a dud offensive performance in Week 9, Smith passed for 369 yards Sunday, and Seattle had the 11th most-productive offensive yardage game of the season in the league (489 yards).
Up next: at Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
(Last week: 15)
Sunday: Beat Cincinnati Bengals 30-27
Coach status: Safe
It looks like everyone who’s been saying that DeMeco Ryans was going to make a great head coach was right. It’s not just that Ryans is one game out of first place in the AFC South in his first year in Houston, it’s that he hasn’t taken a misstep since getting the job in January. The Texans took the right quarterback (C.J. Stroud) with the No. 2 pick in April, and that led to 544 yards on Sunday against the Bengals and one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL.
Up next: vs. Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
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(Last week: 8)
Sunday: Lost to San Francisco 49ers 34-3
Coach status: Safe
Doug Pederson has made a nice career of replacing the big splash college coach hire by just being a pro. In Philadelphia, he replaced Chip Kelly and won a Super Bowl in his second year. In Jacksonville, he replaced Urban Meyer and has the Jaguars in first place in the AFC South in his second season. Sunday was a down day, though. The Jaguars offensive EPA (minus-21.07) was the fourth worst in Pederson’s 118 games as a head coach.
Up next: vs. Tennessee Titans, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
(Last week: 12)
Sunday: Beat New York Giants 49-17
Coach status: Shaky
Mike McCarthy is 30-13 in the regular season in the last three years as Cowboys coach. He sold Dallas owner Jerry Jones on the notion that giving him more control of the offense would result in better overall team play, and the formula worked Sunday for sure. They outgained the Giants 640-172 and outscored them 109-17 this season, but it hasn’t worked against the teams it will need to in the playoffs. Jones has been more patient with head coaches than his public persona would suggest, but McCarthy has won only one playoff game in Dallas.
Up next: at Carolina Panthers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
(Last week: 17)
Sunday: Beat New Orleans Saints 27-19
Coach status: Safe
Kevin O’Connell didn’t get a lot of credit for Minnesota’s 13-4 record in his first season as head coach because of the Vikings’ crazy luck in one-score games and ensuing playoff flameout, but what he’s done in the two games since Kirk Cousins suffered an Achilles injury is impressive. Two weeks ago, Minnesota scored 31 points with a quarterback, Josh Dobbs, who had not taken a snap with the team until that day. On Sunday, the Vikings followed that up with another win under Dobbs, who had a 101.1 passer rating.
Up next: at Denver Broncos, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
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14. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)
(Last week: 13)
Sunday: Beat Green Bay Packers 23-19
Coach status: Solid
Mike Tomlin’s status is unchanging. He’s planted in Pittsburgh as long as he wants to be, and it makes sense considering he seems to be on the way extending his streak of never-had-a-losing-season to 17 years. Steelers fans, though, can be forgiven for wondering if Tomlin shouldn’t be judged on a different scale. Such as: What has he won lately? The answer to that is no playoff games in six years. This year’s Steelers are minus-26 in point differential, the lowest in the league for any team with a winning record.
Up next: at Cleveland Browns, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
(Last week: 14)
Sunday: Lost to Minnesota Vikings 27-19
Coach status: Shaky
Dennis Allen won’t be going anywhere if the Saints win the NFC South, and it’s somehow in first place in the division despite losing Sunday. However, he’s 12-15 in two seasons with the Saints, which makes him 20-43 all time as a head coach. Allen is an excellent defensive coordinator, but New Orleans can do better for a head coach and might if Allen doesn’t win the division this season.
Up next: Bye
(Last week: 11)
Monday: Lost to Denver Broncos 24-22
Coach status: Safe
Fifteen coaches in NFL history have coached more than 100 games and have a winning percentage of higher than .630. Sean McDermott is one of them. There’s some anxiety in Buffalo that the Bills’ championship window is going to close in frustrating fashion. That anxiety was not alleviated by a sloppy, four-turnover performance on Monday night, but McDermott has earned some benefit of the doubt after winning double-digit games in each of the last four seasons.
Up next: vs. New York Jets, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
17. Los Angeles Chargers (4-5)
(Last week: 16)
Sunday: Lost to Detroit Lions 41-38
Coach status: Shaky
Brandon Staley went from being the defensive coordinator at John Carroll University, a 3,600-student private college in Ohio, to an NFL head coach in five years, and it’s possible that the ascent was too fast. Staley’s background is on defense, but the Chargers are 24th in points allowed (23.9 ppg) after Sunday, which dropped Staley to 23-20 as a head coach. Justin Herbert had a 114.9 passer rating and the Chargers scored touchdowns on their final five possessions against Detroit, and they still lost.
Up next: at Green Bay Packers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
18. Las Vegas Raiders (5-5)
(Last week: 19)
Sunday: Beat New York Jets 16-12
Coach status: Shaky
The only team so far to make a coaching change, the Raiders fired Josh McDaniels last week, and are now 2-0 under interim coach Antonio Pierce on Sunday. Pierce will win the team over down the stretch simply because he’s not McDaniels, so he has a shot to have that interim tag removed. It’s more likely, though, that Las Vegas tries to make a splashier hire, and who would be splashier than Jim Harbaugh?
Up next: at Miami Dolphins, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
GO DEEPER
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(Last week: 20)
Sunday: Beat New England Patriots 10-6
Coach status: Safe
After finishing last season 30th in scoring with 17 points per game, the Colts are ninth with 24.2 points per game despite an offensive stinker Sunday in Germany. New coach Shane Steichen is managing that despite losing quarterback Anthony Richardson for the season and missing tailback Jonathan Taylor for a month. Steichen got a win over Bill Belichick on Sunday with Gardner Minshew as his starting quarterback. He gets some points for that.
Up next: Bye
(Last week: 21)
Sunday: Lost to Seattle Seahawks 29-26
Coach status: Shaky
Barring a 7-0 finish to end the season (which seems very unlikely), Ron Rivera is going to have a losing record when his fourth season in Washington is complete. Rivera should get some sort of medal for surviving Dan Snyder’s ownership with such grace, but his results with the Commanders can’t be what new owner Josh Harris is looking for. There’s a chance Harris sticks with Rivera to maintain some consistency while he figures out other things, but it feels like a small one.
Up next: vs. New York Giants, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
(Last week: 25)
Sunday: Beat Tennessee Titans 20-6
Coach status: Shaky
Todd Bowles is an excellent defensive coordinator, but he is 38-55 in seven years as a head coach. He was 8-9 last year with Tom Brady at quarterback. Predictably, it has not gotten better with Baker Mayfield at quarterback although Tampa Bay did stop a four-game losing streak on Sunday. The sample size on Bowles’ head coaching career is large enough that we know what he is now — a great defensive coordinator.
Up next: at San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
22. Denver Broncos (4-5)
(Last week: 27)
Monday: Beat Buffalo Bills 24-22
Coach status: Safe
The Broncos sent a first- and second-round draft pick to New Orleans in the offseason for the right to hire Sean Payton, so he’s not going anywhere, especially with Denver playing the way it is now. The Broncos won their third straight despite getting outgunned 7.1 yards per play to 4.2 yards per play by the Bills.
Up next: vs. Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
(Last week: 18)
Sunday: Lost to Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-6
Coach status: Safe
Coming off his first losing season in his five years as the Titans’ head coach, Mike Vrabel looks like he’s on his way to another. There was a moment of hope after quarterback Will Levis beat the Falcons in his NFL debut in Week 8, but Levis’ completion percentage, yards per attempt, passer rating and EPA per dropback all have dropped each week since. Vrabel is now 51-40 in Tennessee. His job is secure, but things are trending in the wrong direction.
Up next: at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
24. Atlanta Falcons (4-6)
(Last week: 22)
Sunday: Lost to Arizona Cardinals 25-23
Coach status: Shaky
Arthur Smith will be Atlanta’s head coach in 2024 barring a complete collapse down the stretch, but this is not what the Falcons had in mind in his third year. They are 18-26 under Smith after losing to a one-win Cardinals team on Sunday. The Falcons have drafted an offensive skill player in the top 10 in each of the last three years, and for that, they are 24th in the league in scoring (18.9 ppg). Smith can take himself into the “safe” category by winning the NFC South this year. If he doesn’t, next season will start on shaky ground.
Up next: Bye
(Last week: 23)
Sunday: Lost to Pittsburgh Steelers 23-19
Coach status: Safe
Matt LaFleur with Aaron Rodgers: 47-18. Matt LaFleur without Aaron Rodgers: 3-7. The Packers’ fifth-year coach has enough equity to survive a down year, but if Jordan Love doesn’t make progress, LaFleur’s status could be downgraded soon. Love, who is in his fourth year in the system, threw his ninth and 10th interceptions Sunday. No quarterback has thrown more this season, and Love is also 34th in the league in completion percentage (58.7).
Up next: vs. Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
GO DEEPER
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(Last week: 26)
Sunday: Bye
Coach status: Safe
How can Sean McVay be in his seventh year as an NFL head coach? The 37-year-old seems like a grizzled veteran. This year has been a struggle with Matthew Stafford suffering a thumb injury and the bill coming due for the chips-all-in 2021 season that resulted in a Super Bowl win. McVay is 8-18 since that championship but still 63-44 overall, which gives him the 32nd-best winning percentage of all time among coaches with more than 100 games coached.
Up next: vs. Seattle Seahawks, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
(Last week: 24)
Sunday: Lost to Las Vegas Raiders 16-12
Coach status: Shaky
The Aaron Rodgers injury was a tough break. The defense, which is Robert Saleh’s specialty, is great. But Saleh is now 15-28 in his third year in New York. The Jets may be forcing quarterback Zach Wilson on Saleh, but having the third-fewest rushing attempts in the league (198) while Wilson is at quarterback and Breece Hall is on the team does fall at Saleh’s feet.
Up next: at Buffalo Bills, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
28. Arizona Cardinals (2-8)
(Last week: 31)
Sunday: Beat Atlanta Falcons 25-23
Coach status: Safe
At this moment, the Cardinals have a quarterback who looked pretty good in his return from an ACL injury (Kyler Murray threw for 249 yards and rushed for 33 and a touchdown) and the Nos. 4 and 20 picks in the 2024 draft. Jonathan Gannon’s biggest blunders this year are beating the Cowboys and the Falcons (which is keeping Arizona from having the No. 1 pick), but he should probably be given some grace for that.
Up next: at Houston Texans, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
(Last week: 28)
Thursday: Beat Carolina Panthers 16-13
Coach status: Shaky
Matt Eberflus matched his win total from a year ago by beating Carolina on Thursday night. That makes him 6-21 in his second season. Sure, Justin Fields’ health has been an issue, but that’s not the main reason the Bears defense ranks 27th in points allowed (25.5). That’s not a good sign for a guy who got the job because of his success as a defensive coordinator.
Up next: at Detroit Lions, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
30. New York Giants (2-8)
(Last week: 29)
Sunday: Lost to Dallas Cowboys 49-17
Coach status: Safe
Brian Daboll’s 2022 coach of the year award gives him some cushion, but that cushion is slowly being eaten away by losses like Sunday’s. The Cowboys outgained the Giants by 468 yards, the largest yardage differential in the league in the last 44 years. Daboll can’t be expected to do much down the stretch with Tommy DeVito as the starting quarterback — he had 86 passing yards Sunday — but maybe that’s the point. The Giants are very much in the running for a draft pick that could get them one of the top two college quarterbacks available.
Up next: at Washington Commanders, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
(Last week: 30)
Sunday: Lost to Indianapolis Colts 10-6
Coach status: Shaky
The fact that Bill Belichick is on shaky ground after six Super Bowl wins in New England illustrates just how ephemeral NFL coaching careers can be. And exactly how contingent they can be on having the right players. After Sunday, Belichick is 81-95 (and 1-2 in the postseason) without Tom Brady as his quarterback versus 219-64 (30-11 in the postseason) with Tom Brady as his quarterback. The Athletic’s Dianna Russini indicated last week there could be a mutual parting of the ways at the end of the season, but owner Robert Kraft looked Sunday like he might not be able to wait even that long. The Patriots have a bye this week.
Up next: Bye
Could Bill Belichick be fired midseason?
Sources believe that outcome would be unlikely, writes @DMRussini. But don’t rule out a move coming at the end of the year…
🔗https://t.co/8uqbCecbWn pic.twitter.com/xms8FDJIHO
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) November 11, 2023
32. Carolina Panthers (1-8)
(Last week: 32)
Thursday: Lost to Chicago Bears 16-13
Coach status: Shaky
The Panthers, who traded DJ Moore, two first-round picks and two second-round picks, for the right to draft Bryce Young No. 1, have scored two offensive touchdowns in the last three games. Frank Reich, who was hired to provide a veteran quarterback whisperer for Young, has already turned over play-calling duties to try to change this team’s fortunes, but nothing is working. Carolina doesn’t get much benefit from stinking this year thanks to the Young trade. Based on the current standings, the Panthers wouldn’t pick until No. 34, and owner David Tepper may have a new coach by then.
Up next: vs. Dallas Cowboys, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
GO DEEPER
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(Top photo of Shaquill Griffin, left, and DeAndre Houston-Carson: Michael Allio / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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